With the Academy Awards less than a month away here is a quick (and subjective) guide to who will win, and who should win come February 22nd.
Best Picture
Will Win: Birdman’s upset win at the PGA and SAG awards will likely act as a precursor to Oscars glory. Although not the strongest film of the 8, it is a stronger film than the other front runner, Boyhood.
Should Win: Whiplash is the most affecting film in the group; Chazelle’s innovation and energy leap off the screen. It will one day be considered the first of a true auteur’s feature films, but unfortunately that type of pragmatism won’t win it top honors come Oscar night. Honorable mention goes to The Grand Budapest Hotel for being the most fun you could have at the movies this year.
Best Director
Will Win: Richard Linklater. He’s been picking up awards from critics associations all over the world. His Globes, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA wins are just a precursor to what Hollywood already knows, it’s his year.
Should Win: Richard Linklater. While Boyhood is very arguably not the strongest film to come out in 2014, Richard Linklater’s 12 year commitment to this project demonstrates a directorial scope that is without competition and will secure his win in this process over product category.
Best Actor
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne’s recent win at SAG for The Theory of Everything should be the push he needs to surpass other front runner Michael Keaton in Birdman.
Should Win: Eddie Redmayne was flawless as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. His performance was at the same if not higher calibre of his fellow nominees, and the material was more challenging from an acting perspective.
Best Actress
Will Win: Julianne Moore has won this award at all of the major Oscar precursors for her work as a linguistics professor who is diagnosed with early on set Alzheimer’s in Still Alice. Despite strong competition she seems set to win the career Oscar that will elude Michael Keaton.
Should Win: Rosamund Pike’s performance in Gone Girl was as intricate and jaw droppingly terrifying as the web her character spun. Unfortunately for her the Academy voters are 77% male, and many likely found her character just as off putting as they did mesmerizing. In a twist of irony, this performance will be remembered for years to come; it’s doubtful anyone will remember Moore’s performance in 6 months, if they saw the film at all.
Supporting Actor
Will Win: The supporting actor and actress categories have been a lock for months; like Patricia Arquette, J.K. Simmons has already won this award at every major Oscars precursor.
Should Win: It’s the year for underrated character actors in both supporting categories. J.K. Simmons’ turn as Fletcher in Whiplash is at times terrifying at others, heart wrenching. Coupled with his outstanding supporting turns in varied films over the years, there will be no surprises in this category come oscar night, and no complaints from critics or fans.
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Like Linklater, Patricia Arquette has been picking up this award in every competition and no one will be surprised when she makes her way to the podium come Oscar night.
Should Win: Patricia Arquette has always been underrated by critics, and her dedication and vulnerability in Boyhood outshine the competition.
Original Screenplay
Will Win: Birdman. The Academy loves wordy, emotionally complex films in this category, and the Globes win will probably help tip the ballot in this category.
Should Win: To borrow a phrase from Cher Horowitz, the Birdman script is a full on Monet. The Grand Budapest Hotel is funnier, more concise, and more effective. This is Wes Anderson’s most accessible script to date, and arguably his best, but alas it likely won’t be enough.
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Oscars are often a numbers game. The Imitation Game is an excellent film, but unfortunately will be shut out of any of the other major categories, giving it the front runner spot in the adapted screenplay category.
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Inherent Vice is funny, quick paced and complex. Unfortunately it’s too abstruse for many viewers and is likely why the film has been ignored by most awards shows. It would be nice to see Anderson’s 6th nomination rewarded with a win, but it looks like he might be waiting for nomination 7.
For a full list of nominees visit the Academy Awards website.